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Mesoscale Discussion 347
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CENTRAL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 140622Z - 140715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM NERN LA AND FAR SERN AR INTO
   PARTS OF CENTRAL MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT
   /FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/ SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST FROM NERN LA INTO
   CENTRAL MS.  MEANWHILE...A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ADVANCE
   E/SEWD INTO THIS REGION ATTENDANT TO A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL AND SRN AR.

   DISCUSSION...AT 06Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   INCREASING FROM FAR NERN LA INTO WRN MS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SSW-NNE
   ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED AHEAD OF AN E/SEWD MOVING
   LINE OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM NERN-EAST CENTRAL AND SRN AR. 
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
   ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
   TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN 30 METER 500-MB
   HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A 100 KT SWLY UPPER-LEVEL
   JET WILL BE SUSTAINED INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
   AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE...A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO MS DURING
   THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. 
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZING FROM ERN LA INTO MS...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST AS
   THE MOISTURE RETURN PERSISTS ALONG THE LLJ.  THESE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33769314 33959184 34649094 34489023 34148962 33498899
               33178886 32468947 31999083 32079172 32409222 32759277
               33209303 33769314 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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