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Mesoscale Discussion 347
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS AND FAR SRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180124Z - 180330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING
   FROM THE W AND S...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
   PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
   NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH MINIMAL
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
   OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 69.
   HOWEVER...WITH DDC AND TOP 00Z RAOBS SAMPLING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND MODERATE DEEP SHEAR...ISOLATED MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO MID/LATE EVENING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39199896 39949990 40269996 40099841 38719793 38459850
               39199896 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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