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Mesoscale Discussion 347
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX THROUGH SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082105Z - 082300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN
   TX INTO SRN NM AND PRODUCE A COUPLE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DOWNBURST WINDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR
   A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX WHERE DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES
   TO NEAR 80F WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50F CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
   MLCAPE /UP TO 500 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND WEAK
   FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...BUT VERTICAL
   SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
   WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29820282 29130315 29510414 30610490 31470602 32170738
               32310500 30450242 29820282 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2016
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