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Mesoscale Discussion 348
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN LA...NRN MS AND PART OF
   WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78...

   VALID 140705Z - 140830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE FASTEST MOVING /ESEWD AROUND 40 KT/ PORTION OF A LINE
   OF STORMS ATTENDANT TO AN MCS OVER AR WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
   NWRN MS.  CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS LINE INDICATED IT WILL MOVE EAST
   OF WW 78 AFTER 07Z...SUCH THAT A ROW OF COUNTIES COULD BE ADDED BY
   THE LOCAL WFO AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SPREADS ACROSS
   NRN MS THROUGH 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 645Z...SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING
   FROM THE NERN AR/TN BORDER SWD INTO FAR NWRN MS...AND THEN TRAILING
   WSWWD THROUGH SRN AR TO FAR NERN TX.  A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ TRANSLATING
   EWD ACROSS MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
   WAA ACROSS THE LOWER MS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED ESEWD ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE STORMS.  THE FASTEST PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
   ESEWD AT 40 KT INTO NWRN MS WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
   THE SHORT TERM...OVER NRN MS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT PORTION OF
   SWRN TN.

   MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MCS/LINE OF STORMS OVER SRN
   AR INTO FAR NERN TX WAS MOVING MORE SLOWLY WITH WEAKER STORM
   INTENSITIES.  THESE TRENDS SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LLJ EXTENDING INTO
   THIS REGION WEAKENS AND VEERS TO SWLY...REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE INTO THIS PART OF WW 78.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD
   PERSIST INTO THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
   CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   IN THE SWRN EXTENT OF WW 78.

   ..PETERS.. 04/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33519560 33769372 33839232 33929143 34299066 34949024
               35379016 35768916 35808821 35008841 34398866 33888965
               33829065 33379180 32759279 32339362 32289442 32139530
               32009596 32259624 32659650 33169630 33519560 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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