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Mesoscale Discussion 348
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE OF TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101956Z - 102200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CONVECTION FROM NW TO CNTRL
   TX...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE
   DRYLINE MAY EVOLVE. SHOULD STORMS BE SUSTAINED...SEVERE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
   FORMING JUST BEFORE NOON AND IS STILL CONTINUING FROM NW TO CNTRL
   TX. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEING SLOWED ACROSS
   THE TX S PLAINS. AN INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM HAS RECENTLY
   COMMENCED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. BUT WITH
   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION BEING HINDERED IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
   OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF
   INSOLATION BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP E/SE. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITHIN THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
   THREAT INITIALLY.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34190300 34710208 35030115 35100028 34849990 34589967
               34009962 33180041 32770110 32640179 32740222 33210297
               33550328 33860331 34190300 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2016
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