Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 349
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 349 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN-CNTRL AND NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102157Z - 110000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP FROM NW TX NWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO NRN OK LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
   AS WELL. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE ACROSS
   WEST TX WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS
   NW TX INTO SW AND CNTRL OK. THE NWRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   IS LOCATED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOUTH OF
   THIS DIFFUSE MOISTURE GRADIENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED
   ACROSS NW TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO
   3000 J/KG RANGE BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED NEAR A MAX IN INSTABILITY OVER NW TX JUST AHEAD OF A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
   EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM SWRN OK INTO CNTRL AND NRN OK
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CELLS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS
   NEW CELLS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE
   ACCORDING TO REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS WITH 700 T0 500 MB LAPSE RATES
   NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   DOWNDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CENTERED ON WICHITA FALLS THIS EVENING.
   THIS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM NW TX
   ACROSS SW OK INTO CNTRL OK RESULTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   MAINLY AFTER 02Z.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33849830 33549937 34169994 35370003 36199962 36779821
               36899651 36689575 36009597 35739708 35099771 33849830 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 11, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities