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Mesoscale Discussion 349
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 70...

   VALID 180210Z - 180345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 70 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH A
   FEW SUPERCELLS FROM THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST TO NRN TAMAULIPAS.
   CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING UPSCALE WHICH MAY YIELD A
   PREDOMINANT WIND/HAIL RISK TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE RISK WILL
   PROBABLY EXTEND FARTHER S IN DEEP S TX WHERE LOCAL WW EXTENSION IS
   RECOMMENDED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
   WIDESPREAD WITH FORCED ASCENT ATOP A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM CALHOUN TO ZAPATA COUNTY AS OF 02Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE BUOYANCY AS SAMPLED BY 00Z CRP RAOB AMIDST
   MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. BUT INCREASING GROUND CLUTTER NOTED
   IN CRP/BRO RADARS IS SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING MLCIN WHICH WILL
   PROBABLY RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TORNADO RISK. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
   SUPPORTED BY A LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITION FROM DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS INTO CLUSTERS. NEVERTHELESS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAPABLE
   OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28569666 28469647 27269741 26409816 26239861 26409909
               26929942 27299938 28059782 28569666 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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