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Mesoscale Discussion 350
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102208Z - 102315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TSTMS INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   MEXICO AND MOVE EWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   REGIONS OF TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SVR THREATS...INCLUDING AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO...ARE ANTICIPATED. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
   COVER THIS EXPECTED SVR THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...WAVE CLOUDS PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
   THE REGION /AROUND DRT/ HAVE RECENT SHOWN A GRADUAL W TO E
   EROSION...INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND
   REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED CLOUD
   COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
   PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EWD MOTION WILL TAKE THESE
   TSTMS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
   80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND SELY SURFACE WINDS.
   EML ATOP THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J PER
   KG.

   FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SELY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SWLY BY 850MB...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
   GREATER THAN 50 KT AT 500 MB AND NEAR 100 KT AT 250 MB. RESULTING
   BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 TO 70 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL
   SEVERE THREATS ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 23Z TO COVER
   THE ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29250088 29590127 29740156 29790185 29800210 29880232
               30110239 30520210 30600161 30430062 30230010 29959966
               29509935 29249927 28859921 28619915 28449923 28169934
               27999962 28039981 28079999 28430031 28900060 29250088 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2016
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