MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OK...N-CENTRAL/NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 310954Z - 311130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS ESPECIALLY
   CENTRAL-ERN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA -- S-CENTRAL/SERN OK AND
   PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX.  MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL...WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE PRIMARILY ALONG
   AND BEHIND STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED AT 0930Z FROM
   WEAK LOW OVER NERN OK...SWWD ACROSS PVJ-DUC-LBB.  CONVECTION OVER
   CENTRAL OK HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY MRGL SVR HAIL OF 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
   ISOLATED HIGHER REPORTS PER NSSL-PING DATA.  COLD FRONT SHOULD
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS REGION...ITS BAROCLINICITY REINFORCED BY
   OUTFLOW FROM SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS NOW FOUND ALONG AND
   BEHIND BOUNDARY.  FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY
   LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM MID-50S TO
   LOW-60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND MUCAPE 1000-1500
   J/KG...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FAVORABLE FOR
   MAINTAINING TSTM ORGANIZATION.  CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE
   WITH RESULTING MCS CROSSING RED RIVER INTO N-CENTRAL/NE TX NEAR AND
   W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER/SERN OK CONVECTION.
   
   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 03/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34939945 34779888 34799789 34989693 35289617 34679559
               34049487 33329479 32929560 33019692 33739898 34939945