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Mesoscale Discussion 351
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...MUCH OF LA...W CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141730Z - 141930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION...AND ALSO IN AN ELEVATED SENSE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM NEAR HOUSTON INTO NRN LA AT 17:30Z. NEW STORMS WERE
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH OTHER STORMS NEAR
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE MS RIVER. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
   AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED CELLS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND
   HAIL-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 

   VEERING LOW-LEVELS WINDS WITH TIME DO NOT FAVOR
   TORNADOES...HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
   IF A CELL CAN ANCHOR NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29489528 30339451 31409345 32679246 33099192 33239085
               33089034 32628992 32328991 31579060 30649141 29569247
               29519270 29679328 29609379 29449430 29299462 29339512
               29489528 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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