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Mesoscale Discussion 351
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102213Z - 102345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
   INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY
   WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...OWING TO MIXING/DESTABILIZATION AND SHARPENING
   CONVERGENCE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD HAS
   INCREASED/DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN VICINITY OF THE
   SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COINCIDENT WITH
   MIDDLE/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50
   KT WILL SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS A LINEAR
   MODE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MO AND
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS STRONGER.

   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36729692 37629629 38759269 37749222 37489266 36789426
               35919599 36729692 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2016
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