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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SRN AL...NRN FL...SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...
VALID 312212Z - 312345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.
HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA LATE THIS
AFTN...BUT ISOLD LARGE HAIL RISKS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN
AL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
AN EARLY DAY MCS HAS MATURED AND CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ALONG
THE ERN GULF CST ALONG/N OF THE SWLY LLJ CORE. SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
AN MCV OVER SWRN GA WITH THE TRAILING COLD OUTFLOW STRETCHING E-W
ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA. STORM MODE HAS GENERALLY FAVORED
BOWISH SIGNATURES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...THOUGH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED. ACTIVITY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN GA...AND THIS COULD BE
MITIGATING SVR DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SFC. TLH VWP DERIVED
SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG...AND A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITH SUSTAINED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND
PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN FL.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SUBTLE IMPULSE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF
THE LWR MS VLY AND IS PROBABLY IMPETUS FOR THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING
ACROSS SRN MS. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM PROBABLY HAS NOT RECOVERED
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS OWING TO THE BLOCKING
OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF CST MCS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE TO FLARE TO NEAR SVR /HAIL THREAT/ FROM TIME TO TIME AS IT
MOVES INTO SRN AL. IF ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAINTAIN INTENSITY...THEN
NWRN PARTS OF THE WW MAY BE TRIMMED EARLY.
..RACY.. 03/31/2009
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31198900 31808807 31568567 31578348 30388339 29808367
29758523 29818685 29948909 31198900
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