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Mesoscale Discussion 352
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN / CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
   PENNSYLVANIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141929Z - 142200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE
   LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER WRN NY. THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH LATE AFTN...AND COULD POSE AN ISOLD
   / CONDITIONAL RISK OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. BUOYANCY
   WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN LIMITED AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
   ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS OVER WRN NY...ALONG SHALLOW SSW-NNE
   WIND SHIFT LINE / PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY LOCATED AHEAD OF OH VLY
   COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING APPEARS LARGELY TO BE IN
   RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH REGION ALSO IS BEING GLANCED
   BY SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE INTO WRN QUE. 

   ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE ERN
   GRT LKS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 SWLY DEEP
   SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGER-SCALE / FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW
   APPROACHING THE MID-MS VLY. COMBINATION OF STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL
   LOW TO MID-LVL SSW FLOW WITH STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE
   RATES...RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...AND WEAK
   LINEAR FORCING ALONG PRECIPITATION /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
   MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS. EMBEDDED
   STRONGER CELLS WITHIN SUCH LINES MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
   PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVE.

   ..CORFIDI/HART.. 04/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43567812 44227726 44737626 44957480 44847374 43537421
               42147566 41207735 41507831 41638050 42557927 43097855
               43567812 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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