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Mesoscale Discussion 354
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MD 354 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST INTO
   CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181745Z - 181845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST
   AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT
   THIS TIME GIVEN THE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THREAT.
   HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN A SEPARATE MCD.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A
   CONFLUENCE BAND AND LIKELY SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MCD AREA
   IS MAINLY UNCAPPED WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG MLCAPE PER 17Z MESOANALYSIS.
   WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AROUND 35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD AID
   IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/LOW GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE
   HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY BUT...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY
   ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM LAPSE RATES NOSING
   INTO THIS REGION COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE
   FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND TRACK EAST TOWARD
   CENTRAL OK.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35989893 36459905 37119914 37629913 37899900 37999849
               37969821 37869794 36939744 36269731 35479724 35239736
               35129768 35129821 35219839 35419865 35989893 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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