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Mesoscale Discussion 354
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0842 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS...SW AND CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80...

   VALID 110142Z - 110345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FROM NE
   OK NEWD INTO CNTRL MO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PORTION OF WW 80 NEAR THE KS-OK
   STATELINE WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
   THE WATCH IN NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK INTO FAR SE KS WHERE
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AT TULSA OK AND SPRINGFIELD MO SHOW 0-6 KM
   SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH
   FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST
   ACROSS THE SWRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 80 SUGGESTING THE LARGE HAIL
   THREAT WILL BE GREATEST THERE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED DOWNDRAFTS. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
   LATE THIS EVENING...A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37609271 36859415 36309556 36269623 36549741 37329733
               38679427 38869267 38299218 37609271 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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