Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 355
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 355 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   OK...NORTHERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181852Z - 182045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
   ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREAT AS SUPERCELLS STORMS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
   HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULES OUT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA IS INCREASING
   THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO. A SURFACE DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN OK/TX
   PANHANDLES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE TX BIG BEND AREA. FURTHER
   EAST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
   KS INTO CENTRAL OK. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE BY 22Z AND
   QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
   KS...WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE
   CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO WESTERN
   NORTH TX BECOME BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   OCCURS. IN FACT...18Z SURFACE OBS AT SPS AND GAG HAVE BECOME
   SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5-15 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK
   CYCLOGENESIS JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DUE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
   RESULTING FROM A BRANCH OF VORTICITY EJECTING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
   PLAINS INTO WESTERN OK. AS A RESULT...A NARROW CORRIDOR MAY EXIST
   WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BRIEFLY ACROSS
   SOUTHWESTERN OK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A SMALL TORNADO
   WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. 

   OTHERWISE...MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR 2000+ J/KG SBCAPE COUPLED WITH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO A SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MODEST...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING COULD ALSO AID IN SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34429764 32819763 32089785 31939811 31779864 31679941
               31940036 32360061 33280005 34009994 35869996 37880002
               38079936 37799877 36699810 35469762 34429764 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 18, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities