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Mesoscale Discussion 356
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...AND ADJACENT NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

   VALID 182002Z - 182145Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 23-00Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   DEEPENING EAST NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO AN
   AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.  BENEATH
   A BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW...AND SEASONABLY
   COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...WITH
   INHIBITION BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.  AS DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES...AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE RATHER
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL VORTICITY
   BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
   ...NOW EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   A RISK FOR RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MORE SUSTAINED
   STORMS.  AND THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT TORNADO REPORTS WITH
   CONVECTION IN WASHINGTON COUNTY COLORADO.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40130223 40830190 41620189 41310041 40480017 40109907
               38929989 39040090 39250174 40130223 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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