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Mesoscale Discussion 356
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82...

   VALID 150630Z - 150730Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF WW 82...TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGEST A NEW WW IS NOT NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OF THE FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS INDICATED A DECREASE IN ITS EWD SPEED BETWEEN 05-06Z
   /FROM 25 KT TO 20 KT...RESPECTIVELY/.  AN MCV REMAINED DETECTABLE IN
   RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE LEADING N-S LINE OF STORMS...WITH THIS
   FEATURE MOVING INTO FAR SWRN GA FROM THE FL PANHANDLE.  THE MCV WAS
   LOCATED NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR PFN.  MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOPS...SUGGESTIVE OF A
   WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES.  

   A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND
   FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE NWRN GULF COAST BY 12Z.  AN
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   WITH THE SRN EXTENT TRAILING SSWWD FROM NERN TO SWRN GA AND INTO THE
   NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF PFN.  ASCENT WITHIN AN
   INCREASING DIFLUENT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED OVER SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH
   EARLY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH COMBINED WITH
   AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER/HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE EAST OF
   THE ONGOING FL PANHANDLE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EWD THREAT FOR
   TSTMS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER
   AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO A REGION WITH GREATER SURFACE BASED
   INHIBITION AND WEAKER INSTABILITY.

   ..PETERS.. 04/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30038687 30988648 31238523 31338440 31248351 31058318
               30568314 29878350 29568391 29668448 29288491 29258525
               29468569 29868619 30038687 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2014
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