Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 358
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 358 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF S-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182132Z - 190000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING FROM AN AREA OF ENHANCED
   MESOSCALE CONVERGE/CUMULUS CONGESTUS NE OF HONDO TX...NEAR A SFC
   TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ARE EVOLVING FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   OVER THE NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD
   INTO THE EVENING. DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION/RELATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS ALLOWED MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION OF A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING
   1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   WEAK...THOUGH AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY FOSTER
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ONE FACTOR PERHAPS
   INHIBITING OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY BE THE LACK OF WARMER
   SFC TEMPERATURES...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED
   WITH CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29079938 29949832 30849767 30119730 28519784 27989970
               28250013 29000049 29079938 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 19, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities