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Mesoscale Discussion 358
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 150858Z - 151000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY CONFINED THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OR A
   TORNADO IS EXPECTED ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE
   MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT ARE THE MAIN LIMITING
   FACTORS FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RECENTLY A SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED IN CALHOUN COUNTY
   FL...WHERE CONVECTION IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM THE EARLIER SMALL MCS THAT MOVED INTO SW GA AND HAS WEAKENED. 
   THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEMARCATES THE NRN EDGE OF THE RICHER
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY ENHANCED IN A
   NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE BOUNDARY /COMPARED TO THE TLH VWP/.  GIVEN
   THESE FACTORS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING GUST RISK IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO NEAR AND JUST N OF TLH IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS.  A SMALL TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   ..THOMPSON.. 04/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30288405 30178429 30038495 30018539 30208547 30358537
               30478492 30668428 30768395 30658377 30408374 30288405 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2014
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