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Mesoscale Discussion 359
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182148Z - 190015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ASCENT PRECEDING A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS
   EMERGING OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...AND IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION
   ALONG A SFC TROUGH ORIENTED NE/SW ACROSS THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION. DEEP
   CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO ENSUE...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUPPORTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. BRO VWP SAMPLES AROUND 70 KT OF
   DEEP SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELLS. SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
   HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST DEEP ASCENT AND INFLUX OF DEEP
   DRY AIR MAY PROVE HOSTILE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
   ALSO...THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION MAY RESTRICT THE SPATIAL
   EXTENT OF SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26659739 26229788 26159854 26459880 27399782 27609726
               26659739 

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