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Mesoscale Discussion 359
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC...SERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151434Z - 151630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ERN NC AND SERN VA OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OR
   PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO COULD OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A N-S ORIENTED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY EWD...IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 40+ KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
   PER MORNING MHX RAOB...RELATIVELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH
   FAVORABLE SHEAR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONGER LIVED
   STORMS...PERHAPS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES. ONE
   PARTICULAR CELL APPROACHING KEDE HAS SHOWN WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AT
   TIMES...BUT NOTHING TO INDICATE A TORNADO AS OF YET. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF
   CIRCULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34467687 36417691 36887677 36917590 36117554 35727542
               35367536 35167556 34857605 34467687 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2014
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