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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...76...
VALID 010027Z - 010200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
73...76...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT INTENSIFYING INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SEWD OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY ALONG SWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED TO THE SE NEAR THE MERGER OF THIS OUTFLOW WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 30-40 NW ALI. 00Z CRP/BRO SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE RAOBS FOR LIKELY
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT
HAIL. MERGING OF SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LESSENING OF
HAIL SIZE. THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH RESULTING INGEST OF
INCREASING MLCIN AMIDST MEAGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO THE
EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE SUPERCELLS BY LATE EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 04/01/2013
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27789957 29110090 29480042 28609797 27829720 27069743
27079816 27459912 27789957
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