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Mesoscale Discussion 360
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX / SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111115Z - 111345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER/MORE
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IF STORMS BEGIN TO EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS...A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
   FOR A GREATER HAIL THREAT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY CAPABLE OF 0.5 TO 1.25
   INCH DIAMETER HAIL PER MRMS MESH DATA DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.
   11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
   TX VICINITY IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION.  ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW LEVELS
   AND 40-KT SWLY H92-H85 FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY /ISENTROPIC
   LIFT REGIME/ WILL SUPPORT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE EARLY
   TO MID MORNING HOURS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP COUPLED WITH STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AOA 40 KT/ WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY THAT A GREATER HAIL THREAT DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33639856 34189804 34369696 34369603 34189503 33799489
               33259511 33099615 32929699 32899809 32979853 33639856 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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