Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 360
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 360 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 182223Z - 190100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING
   ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE DFW METROPLEX
   AND VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF
   A WW IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL
   TX. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FAVORABLY MOIST WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. INSTABILITY FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS
   IS ENHANCED BY INSOLATION-ENCOURAGED PBL HEATING AND SURMOUNTED BY
   7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
   COINCIDING WITH 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...INTENSE
   CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
   DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
   DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE FWS
   VWP SAMPLING 15 KT OF LESS OF FLOW AOB 2 KM AGL...LOW-LEVEL SRH IS
   SMALL...LIMITING OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
   RISK. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...AS
   THE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT ENHANCES STREAMWISE VORTICITY FOR
   SUPERCELL TSTMS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32769732 33629690 33439617 32299618 30959640 30819727
               31679720 32769732 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 19, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities