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Mesoscale Discussion 362
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111715Z - 111945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD WARRANT WW
   ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF
   THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO SWRN MS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
   INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
   LIES WITHIN A WEAKLY DEFINED WARM-CONVEYOR STRUCTURE RELATED TO A
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ARKLATEX REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED -- S OF LOCATIONS
   ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 0361. NEVERTHELESS...THE
   COMBINATION OF LIMITED SFC HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT COULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER DEEPENING OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR
   OFFERED BY AROUND 40-50 KT OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE
   POE VWP WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
   /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/ WITH SVR HAIL/WIND. FURTHERMORE...SUFFICIENT
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
   WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT CAPPING IN THE
   850-700-MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SHV AND LCH RAOBS DETRACTS
   CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED...DEEP...ROTATING CONVECTION
   OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
   PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR LIMITING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ONLY WEAK
   ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   SOME SVR RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30369258 31089336 31969325 32019120 32318961 31478910
               30868996 30369258 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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