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Mesoscale Discussion 363
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TEXAS AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111739Z - 111945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT SOME
   POINT THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY BY 20-21Z...PERHAPS EARLIER.

   DISCUSSION...THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...IN RESPONSE
   TO INSOLATION...AND THE ONSET OF WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS
   NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH
   OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND A STALLING
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   TOWARD AND AFTER 20-21Z...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
   BECOME FOCUSED JUST EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
   DRYLINE...NEAR AND NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
   METROPLEX.  BENEATH AT LEAST MODEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE PROBABLY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG.  

   ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS AROUND 850 MB HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED AND VEERED
   TO A PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT...40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
   WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
   GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
   INTENSIFYING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
   IMPULSE TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. 
   HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IS ONGOING NEAR
   THE RED RIVER...PROBABLY ROOTED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPPER FORCING COULD SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..KERR/GOSS.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32349774 33399979 33619986 34169809 34419726 33959648
               33749563 33189485 32379518 31379614 31419701 32349774 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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