Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 364
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 364 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181548Z - 181745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL AND
   NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NCNTRL
   FL...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AND MELBOURNE AREAS. A MOIST WARM SECTOR
   RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. A
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER
   THE ERN GULF NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND WEST OF TAMPA HAVE
   SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SOME ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEADS
   AND BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30
   KT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM ANVIL DEBRIS HAS OVERSPREAD A SIGNIFICANT
   PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...BUT FILTERED SUN SHOULD RESULT IN
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S IN CNTRL FL...SUPPORTING UP TO
   1500 J/KG MLCAPE. 

   A 40 KT SLY LLJ AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
   CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SQUALL LINE INTO THE FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NEAR SFC WINDS TO VEER
   OVER CNTRL FL...AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
   HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WEST OF
   TAMPA SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY WITH
   STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER
   MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. THESE
   STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY
   LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29368295 29838219 29618123 28518077 27638088 26908126
               26758219 27498261 28778271 29368295 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 18, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities