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Mesoscale Discussion 364
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS...SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182317Z - 190145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW SVR TSTMS IS NON-ZERO INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VERY BROAD/MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPERIMPOSING A
   WEAKLY DIURNALLY HEATED SFC LAYER TO ENCOURAGE RECENT DEEPER
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...LAPSE
   RATES ARE POOR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT
   STRONG. STRONG DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE JAN VWP MAY ENHANCE
   STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST/TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH POOR LAPSE RATES FURTHER
   REINFORCED BY EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   ONLY 15-20 KT OR LESS OF FLOW BELOW 1.5 KM AGL PER LIX AND DGX
   VWPS...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31159318 31969258 32288832 31478785 31038849 30899055
               30789222 31159318 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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