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Mesoscale Discussion 364
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111843Z - 112115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE
   IN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL
   FOR ALL SVR MODES WILL EXIST...AND WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A
   MODEST UPTICK IN GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
   WARM ADVECTION ACROSS E TX -- TRAILING TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATION CROSSING PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS REGION.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
   CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL EML WILL BE PRESENT.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER --
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S -- WILL
   SUSTAIN MARGINAL TO STRONG INSTABILITY. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100-200
   M2/S2...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND AND SOME TORNADO RISK WOULD
   CONDITIONALLY EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL TSTMS EMANATING
   FROM THE ONGOING MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION. ULTIMATELY...THE
   WEAK-ASCENT REGIME COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   RELATED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON THE
   COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE SVR RISK. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SOME SVR POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29919665 30239672 30709640 31019594 31219546 31279515
               31089478 30519419 30009452 29609574 29919665 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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