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Mesoscale Discussion 365
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX...ADJACENT SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

   VALID 112026Z - 112200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS
   UNDERWAY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
   DRYLINE...NOW SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS.  RAPID NEW
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-22 IN THE VICINITY
   OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WHERE 2 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MAXIMIZED.  THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   DEVELOPING AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH COULD
   SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW APPEARS AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...WHICH MAY
   SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
    
   VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY
   OCCURRED IN INITIAL STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ACROSS
   SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND THIS RISK PROBABLY WILL INCREASE WITH
   ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
   IN GROWING/EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD TEND TRACK EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

   AIDED BY 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...INITIAL
   STRONGER...SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY TEND TO CROSS THE WEST
   NORTHWEST/EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THIS COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE STRENGTHENING...AND SOME RISK
   FOR TORNADOES...DESPITE THE FACT THAT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE
   BECOME RATHER WEAK.

   ..KERR.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33889859 33889660 33489544 32369465 32059672 33069820
               33889859 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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