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Mesoscale Discussion 365
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

   VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH 21Z AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND NCTNRL
   FL. PORTIONS OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT WW 83 BY 21Z. WW CAN BE
   LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES
   NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT AROUND 30
   KT. A WELL DEFINED MCV WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE LINE. SO
   FAR ONLY SUB-SEVERE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
   REPORTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN TEMPERED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
   HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE SUPPORTING UP TO 1000 J/KG
   MLCAPE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE STRONGER
   STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EWD
   EXTENT ACROSS CNTRL FL AND THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE EAST OF CURRENT WW WILL PROBABLY
   NOT BE NECESSARY.

   ..DIAL.. 04/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28558213 29198249 29408195 28588143 27298127 26998176
               27828178 28558213 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2014
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