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Mesoscale Discussion 366
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
   THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
   SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
   SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
   BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
   HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
   LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
   SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
   MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
   A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
   HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
   PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
               28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2014
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