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Mesoscale Discussion 366
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...76...

   VALID 182340Z - 190115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   72...76...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX...WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   SVR HAIL EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS CONGEALED INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE
   INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX AND WACO. STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE COUPLED
   WITH 30-45 KT OF DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE
   LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SVR WIND/HAIL. THE
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH TRAILING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING COLD POOL AND FARTHER S
   WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
   AND TX HILL COUNTRY. IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED
   AIR...PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
   BE RELATIVELY LOW OWING TO INCREASED MLCINH -- NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED.

   ..COHEN.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29940144 32440015 33629633 31729605 30299787 29249995
               29940144 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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