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Mesoscale Discussion 366
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN LA...SRN AR...CNTRL/SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...

   VALID 112042Z - 112215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 84. EWD EXTENSION OF THE
   WW ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL MS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...A SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/LINE EXTENDS FROM
   NEAR GREENWOOD MS TO NEAR RUSTON LA AND IS SPREADING EWD/ESEWD. AS
   THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORIENTED PARALLEL
   TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...THE OVERALL SVR-HAIL RISK WILL BECOME
   RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED WHILE EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
   POTENTIALLY SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD/ESEWD...POTENTIALLY YIELDING SOME
   SVR RISK INTO OTHER PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL MS. THIS IS WHERE
   DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER ELEVATED
   CONVECTION AMIDST 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ALSO...IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...ONGOING MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION OF
   THE PREVIOUSLY OVERTURNED AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A SVR RISK
   SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SRN AR AND NRN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   FARTHER S...WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM ERN TX TO WRN LA. A FEW CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS EVOLVING IN THIS REGIME COULD DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
   PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SVR RISK...THOUGH WEAK ASCENT AND CAPPING ALOFT
   WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32159388 33229338 33709209 33759152 33699054 33588959
               33178875 32358882 31798972 30819094 30579297 30769386
               31349399 32159388 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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