MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AL...FL PNHDL AND REMAINDER OF NRN FL
   INTO SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...
   
   VALID 021506Z - 021600Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 104...105...CONTINUES.
   
   A COUPLING OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
   STRENGTHENING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
   EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES TOWARD THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...MUCH AS
   PROGGED BY MODELS.  THIS IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL ONGOING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS.  THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY...FUELED BY AN INFLOW OF
   MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...MOSTLY ACROSS AND SOUTH THROUGH
   EAST OF PANAMA CITY.  HOWEVER...A LINGERING WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TORNADO
   WATCHES...HAS PROVIDED A RECENT FOCUS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION. 
   STORMS TO THE SOUTH HAVE CUT-OFF THE MOST FAVORABLE INFLOW TO THE
   FRONTAL STORMS...BUT A MOIST AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING/ TRAINING CELLS.
   
   AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS STILL PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  AS THIS OCCURS...ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. 
   WHILE THIS MAY MOSTLY BE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z...  AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEAR TERM ...PARTICULARLY
   EAST OF PANAMA CITY THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
   18-19Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30108755 30688697 31628560 32528479 32528356 32258167
               31768102 30868141 29938272 29298335 28928459 28748563
               28938667 29248766 30108755