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Mesoscale Discussion 367
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

   VALID 112149Z - 112315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL THREATEN NRN DFW METROPLEX BY ABOUT
   23-00Z...BUT THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD-SEWD
   ACROSS NRN WISE COUNTY...WITH THE MESOCYCLONE A LITTLE MORE THAN 10
   MI N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN WISE TO NRN DALLAS
   COUNTIES.  A SIMILAR SITUATION EXISTS WITH A STORM N OF THE BOUNDARY
   IN HUNT COUNTY.  THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...WITH
   A CLEAR REDUCTION IN SBCAPE WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NEW/COOL OUTFLOW. 
   THE NLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELLS ARE HELPING MAINTAIN
   FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES...BUT LOW-LEVEL SRH IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY LARGE AND IS UNLIKELY TO OFFSET THE REDUCTIONS IN
   BUOYANCY.  THUS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND BE
   FOCUSED PRIMARILY WITH ANY NEWER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AT THE
   OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION IN WRN WISE COUNTY.  DESPITE THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY TORNADO RISK...VERY LARGE HAIL /NEAR BASEBALL
   SIZE/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...PERHAPS AFFECTING THE NRN
   PORTIONS OF FORT WORTH AND DALLAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..THOMPSON.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33159590 32999545 32729546 32629562 32619599 32679641
               32789690 32909732 33269790 33379775 33479749 33389694
               33259633 33159590 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2016
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