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Mesoscale Discussion 367
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182311Z - 190115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHEAST
   FLORIDA MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
   EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
   CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
   BY 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MLB VWP. THE DOWNSHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY...PARTLY OWING TO LOWER 80S SFC TEMPERATURES AMIDST UPPER
   60S-LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD FURTHER
   INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. MODERATE SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
   THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME PERSISTENCE AND
   ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   COULD EVOLVE AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED SELY SFC
   WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG
   WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIES WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL
   LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO GREATER SVR TSTM COVERAGE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   27078069 27648067 27728050 27588032 27228013 26558003
               26228022 26218064 26428081 27078069 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2014
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