MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...104...
   
   VALID 021717Z - 021815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 103...104...CONTINUES.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 19Z SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN FL INTO
   FAR SERN GA...WITH MINIMAL THREAT ELSEWHERE IN VALID PORTIONS OF WW
   103/104. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 19Z FOR NRN
   FL/FAR SERN GA.
   
   LARGE MCS WITH BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
   EWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
   APPROACHING THE COASTAL BIG BEND REGION OF FL. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
   DEPICTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLANKING THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NE ACROSS
   SERN GA AND WWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST. MUCH OF THE AIRMASS N
   OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES AND NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES /PER ACARS SOUNDINGS INVOF FFC
   AND TLH/. ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS...STRONG TO SEVERE
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NERN GULF/...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
   WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...SHORT DURATION MESOCYCLONIC STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   QLCS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31418166 30398123 29508110 29408210 29118336 29278538
               29798473 30768319 31438219 31418166