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Mesoscale Discussion 369
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LA...FAR S AR...CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...85...

   VALID 112309Z - 120015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   84...85...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF LA AND MS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THAT WW 84 EXPIRES
   AT 00Z...AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
   CONTINUED THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THUS FAR...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION HAS
   BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH WAA INTO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND TSTM INITIATION/PERSEVERANCE.
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   MODEST INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG -- THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS /MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT AREAWIDE/.  

   SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
   AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS THE SUPERCELL IN WOOD/CAMP/UPSHUR COUNTIES IN E
   TX CONTINUES EWD INTO THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S-CNTRL
   OK AND N-CNTRL TX CONTINUES EWD. AS A RESULT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST THE 00Z
   EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 84...LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A
   NEW WW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA AND MS.

   ..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 04/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30789436 33769319 33748950 30799082 30789436 

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