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Mesoscale Discussion 369
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190446Z - 190645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
   OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
   TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A STEADILY
   STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPROXIMATELY 60NM WSW OF KEY WEST
   WITH OTHER DEEPENING SHOWERS OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
   INITIAL STORMS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG THE SRN
   EXTENSION OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
   CENTERED ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST APPEAR TO BE MECHANISMS
   CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS INCIPIENT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD/NEWD
   THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL
   PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MELBOURNE SWD/SWWD THROUGH MIAMI AND KEY WEST
   INDICATE A NOTABLE STRENGTHENING IN SLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RECENT LLJ DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL
   FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 45-50 KT WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH A WEAK W-E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF A FMY-PBI LINE WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY MAY REMAIN LOCALLY AUGMENTED.

   ..MEAD.. 04/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24538252 25398195 26328145 26798054 26788007 26207986
               25118038 24528117 24238210 24538252 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2014
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