MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021859Z - 022000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DMGG
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN BREAKS OF WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 F IN SOME
   LOCATIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED INVOF LOCALIZED
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER LLANO COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING S OF
   A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR SJT-BWD-30 S
   FTW AS OF 19Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
   HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS LOWER
   60S/ ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE
   APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH-RESOLUTION
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED
   FRONTAL CLUSTER OR LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL TX. A DMGG WIND
   THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY
   ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL AND LOCALIZED DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...COULD
   ACCOMPANY PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE STORMS THAT OCCUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING COVERAGE AND
   INTENSIFICATION WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WW.
   
   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   29629972 29979983 31279975 31569924 31769870 31809837
               32049738 31819655 31409642 30399659 29889706 29569744
               29499814 29629972