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Mesoscale Discussion 370
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...76...

   VALID 190124Z - 190300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   72...76...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL/ERN TX ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
   WITH THESE STORMS...AND ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A MATURE LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS WITH A
   HISTORY OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD. LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EWD...AIDED BY
   CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL.
   HOWEVER...THIS MCS IS LIKELY BEYOND PEAK INTENSITY...AS IT IS
   ADVANCING INTO NOW-NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED AND CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED
   AIR. RELATED MLCINH WAS SAMPLED AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING...AND SHOULD
   LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE MCS. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 72 MAY
   BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH
   CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITHOUT MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL BACKGROUND POLEWARD MASS FLUXES. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
   WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED...AND AREAS BEHIND THE LEADING
   CONVECTIVE LINE/TRANSITION REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
   ADDITIONAL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30069933 30789792 31799698 33449696 33619607 33329558
               31519544 30279669 29479837 30069933 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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