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Mesoscale Discussion 371
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192022Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM FAR WRN
   TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS
   MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   IS UNDERWAY OVER FAR WRN TX IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD
   THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX. NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
   TO LOW 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 500-1000
   J/KG MLCAPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. OROGRAPHIC FORCING
   AND DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD WITHIN
   SERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TX AND SRN NM. THOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
   LOWEST 3 KM IS MODEST...40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AT
   LEAST WEAK-MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
   ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31140563 31480605 32000648 32170569 31980455 31530397
               31060390 30710409 30550437 30500469 30640494 30840527
               31140563 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2014
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