MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN...W CNTRL KY AND ADJACENT AREAS
   OF SRN IL/IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021904Z - 022100Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AS FAR NORTH AS
   THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL AREA OF MID-LEVEL
   FORCING EMANATING FROM THE MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
    WHILE THIS FORCING DEVELOPS EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXIT REGION OF THE
   PRIMARY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY NOSE THROUGH
   WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.  DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR BACKING
   WINDS ALOFT...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE
   CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS ARKANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF
   WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION LIKELY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH THE LOWER 60S.
    ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   37698864 38518782 38838595 37758526 36238580 36128648
               36208777 36908858 37698864