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Mesoscale Discussion 372
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS...PECOS VALLEY OF W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200000Z - 200130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MCV WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A
   NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
   WITH ERN EXTENT.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCV CENTERED OVER SRN REEVES COUNTY WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS ARCING INTO NERN PRESIDIO COUNTY HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
   RADAR-ALGORITHM DERIVED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STORM-RELATIVE INBOUND
   VELOCITIES UP TO AROUND 90 KT. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE DEW
   POINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 40S AT KFST...THESE PROBABLE SEVERE
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. 

   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL MLCAPE EXISTS E OF THE
   PECOS RIVER. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY
   ESTABLISHED STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL
   SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE 
   NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION FINALLY YIELD DISSIPATION OF
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 04/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31210373 31310367 31620261 31570203 31080131 30290112
               29710137 29010310 29090338 30090406 31210373 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2014
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