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Mesoscale Discussion 372
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LA/SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWEST AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190706Z - 190830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN LA/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL. THIS
   INCLUDES BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
   WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN LA
   INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AS OF 0645Z/145 AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
   LIKELY NEAR-SURFACE-BASED AND IS OCCURRING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS
   INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY
   EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO
   INCREASING CONFLUENCE NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...PRESUMABLY
   INFLUENCED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO/ARKLATEX. WHILE THE JACKSON
   WSR-88D VWP APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY RECENT CONVECTION...VWP DATA
   FROM SLIDELL LA/MOBILE AL FEATURE RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK OVERNIGHT SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO
   ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30699122 32138953 32518787 31798755 30858805 29918997
               29869134 30699122 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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