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Mesoscale Discussion 372
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122054Z - 122300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY APPROACH
   VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...TO THIS POINT...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
   RIO GRANDE RIVER /WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO/ WHERE
   INSOLATION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
   INITIATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

   STORMS CLOSEST TO THE U.S. BORDER MAY AT LEAST APPROACH VAL VERDE
   COUNTY BY 22-23Z...WHILE NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FORM TO THE
   SOUTH SOUTHWEST.  MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND
   EAST OF THE RIVER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...AS AN
   IMPULSE NOW PIVOTING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES ACROSS AND EAST
   OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA.  THIS MAY LARGELY BE FOCUSED WITHIN A
   ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION TO THE
   EAST OF DEL RIO.  

   ONCE THIS OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
   CONVECTION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT WESTERLY
   500 MB FLOW.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..KERR/GOSS.. 04/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29950201 30680147 31099969 30869887 29689902 28570000
               27540137 27690271 28830271 29950201 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2016
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