MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79...
   
   VALID 022203Z - 022330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 79.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z REVEALS A WAVY FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ACROSS CNTRL TX AND INTO NERN
   TX. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING SWD OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...PER TRENDS IN THE ASSOCIATED W/E-ELONGATED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CU LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY YIELDING AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WW AREA.
   
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SVR THREAT ACROSS WW 79 IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THREE MAIN SPATIAL REGIMES:
   1. ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
   THE TX BIG BEND TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU WILL LIKELY EMERGE OVER THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU. MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID
   LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING INFLOW OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF HAIL REACHING QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SVR WIND
   GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL MERGERS YIELD
   LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS.
   
   2. DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ESEWD
   FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN AMID
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE/COLD POOL MERGERS
   HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS MAY INDICATE A
   TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO EVOLVE TO MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODES WITH AN
   INCREASING SVR WIND THREAT.
   
   3. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL LIKELY STALL DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP AROUND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF
   MID-LEVEL ASCENT INFLUENCES THE AREA. SVR WINDS/HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH STORM CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/S OF THE
   BOUNDARY...WITH SVR HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANAFRONTAL
   CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH.
   
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...REGIONAL WIND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR/S OF THE FRONT...AS VERTICALLY VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW ELONGATES HODOGRAPH LENGTH.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   31730245 31749618 29329776 29330391 31730245