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Mesoscale Discussion 373
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201955Z - 202200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
   SWD THROUGH WRN TX INTO EARLY EVENING. MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL
   BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED
   OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EWD. MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE BANDS
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING. STEEP 7.5-8 C/KM
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIABATIC
   WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS
   REGION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND NRN PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX GENERALLY AOB 35 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. SOME OF THESE
   STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
   AND LONGEVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE WEAK SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34140182 35020126 35180061 34780007 33840017 32800141
               32420259 32760283 34140182 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2014
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