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Mesoscale Discussion 373
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122213Z - 130045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
   IMPACT AREAS OF SE TX THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREATS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE CHANCE FOR WW ISSUANCE REMAINS
   LOW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
   70S F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. AN
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
   WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT THE
   STORM FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE WSR-88D VWP AT HOUSTON SHOWS 50
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. THIS COMBINED
   WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30259467 29819461 29439507 29179587 29449627 29969611
               30439509 30259467 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2016
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