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Mesoscale Discussion 373
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN LA INTO WESTERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190756Z - 190930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN A
   POSSIBILITY WITH EASTWARD-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION ACROSS
   CENTRAL LA INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA/WESTERN MS. CURRENT THINKING
   IS THE SCENARIO WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL OVERALL...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A 100+ MILE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
   OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LA WILL CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LA AND WESTERN MS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
   SQUALL LINE...MEASURED 38 KT WIND GUSTS WERE NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HOURS IN WESTERN LA AT BOTH SHREVEPORT AND BEAUREGARD. THIS
   QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY AN MCV...ASIDE FROM
   THE INCREASING INFLUENCES OF AN UPSTREAM SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH/WARM
   ADVECTION. MCV-RELATED WINDS/REAR INFLOW DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY
   STRONG PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT/FT POLK.
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HELP SUSTAIN THIS
   RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   WESTERN MS. PARTICULARLY SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED LITTLE
   OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION/MODEST BUOYANCY
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THE
   LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32409314 32629241 32429066 31639059 30619214 30579312
               31469282 32409314 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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