MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX INTO N-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 022333Z - 030130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
   NEEDED.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN EML ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 7.5 C/KM PER UPSTREAM 12Z MORNING RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A NE/SW-ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
   REGION. THE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THIS TROUGH EXTENDS
   FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION PER RECENT
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ASCENT...AN UPTICK IN
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AMID A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP A SFC COLD
   DOME...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD N-CNTRL TX
   THROUGH THE EVENING. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AN ELEVATED MOIST/NEARLY
   SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE BASE OF THE EML WILL BE SUBJECT TO
   500-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   OUTPUT. AND...WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...OCCASIONALLY
   ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY...ANY SVR
   POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL/SPORADIC.
   
   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32360087 33900010 34079897 33669790 32699761 32189846
               32069990 32360087