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Mesoscale Discussion 374
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 130026Z - 130300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL TX OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION
   EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF DEL RIO EXTENDING ESEWD TO SOUTH OF
   SAN ANTONIO AND THEN ENEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. NEAR AND TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
   70 F WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE
   ANALYSIS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE DEL RIO 00Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
   65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST
   THAT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
   AND THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PARTS
   OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS CELLS
   INTENSIFY AND A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS LATER
   THIS EVENING...THE SAN ANTONIO AREA MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30229722 29409676 28919737 28619832 28569938 28560052
               30040072 30219907 30229722 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2016
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