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Mesoscale Discussion 374
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202333Z - 210130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS
   POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   TEXAS...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND
   AND HAIL.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THAT A
   WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT NEEDED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE MOST PROMINENT CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE ISOLATED
   STORM EAST OF CHILDRESS...WHICH HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS AS IT SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
   LAYER INSTABILITY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
   ALONG THE RED RIVER...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF PRIOR
   CONVECTION...LOCALLY BACKED /SOUTHEASTERLY/ SURFACE FLOW IS
   ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW.  AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS...PERHAPS ANOTHER BRIEF TORNADO...COULD PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
   OR TWO TO THE WEST OF THE LAWTON/WICHITA FALLS AREA.

   OTHERWISE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY...
   PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATING
   ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION...COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING
   STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  THE LEADING
   EDGE OF A NARROW TONGUE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
   PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILL
   REMAIN GENERALLY MODEST IN STRENGTH...THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH
   THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WHICH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK
   FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33569973 33530002 33300103 33790220 34500162 35400118
               34899986 34689913 34539871 34189868 33829898 33569973 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2014
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