Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 374
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 374 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX INTO N-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 022333Z - 030130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
   NEEDED.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN EML ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 7.5 C/KM PER UPSTREAM 12Z MORNING RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A NE/SW-ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
   REGION. THE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THIS TROUGH EXTENDS
   FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION PER RECENT
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ASCENT...AN UPTICK IN
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AMID A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP A SFC COLD
   DOME...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD N-CNTRL TX
   THROUGH THE EVENING. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AN ELEVATED MOIST/NEARLY
   SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE BASE OF THE EML WILL BE SUBJECT TO
   500-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   OUTPUT. AND...WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...OCCASIONALLY
   ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY...ANY SVR
   POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL/SPORADIC.
   
   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32360087 33900010 34079897 33669790 32699761 32189846
               32069990 32360087 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 03, 2013
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities