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Mesoscale Discussion 375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN THRU CNTRL GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 78...

   VALID 191440Z - 191645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 78 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 17-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
   TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK MID/UPPER
   IMPULSES MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
   MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
   MODERATELY LARGE BENEATH A BELT OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS
   APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL...MAINLY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND
   HUMIDITY IS HIGHEST...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA /WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 70F/.  

   IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR IF THE ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTION WITH A
   SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONE...NOW EAST OF ABBEVILLE AL...IS BEING
   SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED
   MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
   MAY BE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ITS MAINTENANCE...AND
   PERHAPS FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH...INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY
   IMPACTS...WHICH MAY INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR AT LEAST
   SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES...AND A MORE GENERAL INCREASE IN POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
   ALBANY GA BY AROUND 16Z...BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH OF MACON TOWARD
   EASTMAN THROUGH 17-19Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32068494 32428410 32498314 32218273 31668327 31488427
               31448477 31728497 32068494 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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