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Mesoscale Discussion 375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87...

   VALID 130243Z - 130415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE
   EXPERIENCED SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WHICH MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION OF
   THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING ONE ENTERING WRN PORTIONS OF BEXAR COUNTY.
   THIS SUPERCELL AND ANOTHER BACK IN WRN MEDINA COUNTIES HAVE STRONG
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL /GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER/.
   SUPERCELL THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF BANDERA...KENDALL...AND
   BLANCO COUNTIES HAS EXPERIENCED SOME UPSCALE GROWTH. THIS UPSCALE
   GROWTH HAS WEAKENED THE UPDRAFT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION
   OF THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   SUPERCELL ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIMILAR UPSCALE
   GROWTH AS ITS COLD POOL AMALGAMATES WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NRN
   STORM.

   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...EVEN WITH THE MORE LINEAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SW...WITH THESE STORMS ALSO POSING A
   SVR HAIL THREAT. EWX VAD SHOWS STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...RESULTING IN HELICITY VALUES THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES. RECENT VAD DATA SAMPLED 0-1 AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 350
   M2/S2 AND 600 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
   THAT STRONG AND THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
   STABILIZE...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28540042 28790054 29140070 29190071 30290070 30289927
               30499928 30499837 30429813 30379817 30059772 30079766
               29649715 29629686 29349657 29079693 28969680 28889674
               28829668 28739664 28709664 28659677 28609692 28539692
               28499699 28559709 28559715 28389740 28139756 28169781
               28119792 28069788 28039939 28229940 28200020 28270027
               28420033 28540042 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2016
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