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Mesoscale Discussion 376
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 130406Z - 130600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...MOVING EWD FROM
   SCNTRL TX INTO SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   LOCATED FROM SCNTRL TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SE TX. A
   MULTI-SEGMENTED LINE WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   IS LOCATED TO THE ENE OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EWD INTO SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING PARALLEL TO
   THE FRONT NEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE HOUSTON AREA...THE LATEST HGX WSR-88D VWP
   SHOWS 65 TO 70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   FROM 0 TO 3 KM AGL. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28739577 28589733 29079751 29699735 30119672 30319542
               29729468 28739577 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2016
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