MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0815 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80...
   
   VALID 030115Z - 030215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 80. THE GREATEST SVR
   THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ACCOMPANY A SUPERCELL CLUSTER MOVING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED HAIL DIAMETERS
   ESTIMATED FROM NSSL WDSS-2 MESH DATA OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IS
   TRACKING ESEWD INTO WHARTON COUNTY. WITH MOST OF THE LEADING
   CONVECTION HAVING WEAKENED...ITS INFLOW MAY NOT BE DISRUPTED BY
   THETA-E DEFICITS...ALLOWING FOR STORM INTENSITY TO BE MAINTAINED AS
   IT CROSSES PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. ON ITS CURRENT
   TRACK...THE SUPERCELL CLUSTER COULD IMPACT MUCH OF CNTRL WHARTON
   COUNTY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...AND
   MATAGORDA COUNTIES TO THE N OF A SFC WIND SHIFT AXIS/DIFFUSE FRONT.
   
   ALONG WITH SVR HAIL...SVR WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH THE
   SUPERCELL CLUSTER. AND...WITH NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW
   LEVELS N OF THE BOUNDARY PER HGX VWP DATA...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   NEAR THE COAST. UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXITING THE TX HILL COUNTRY MAY
   ALSO INTENSIFY...AND THE WW MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO
   MATAGORDA AND JACKSON COUNTIES TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SVR THREAT
   IN THESE AREAS.
   
   FARTHER N...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY LESS UNSTABLE WITH
   SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS/LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES.
   HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/03/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   28719557 28849655 29389689 30139697 30689663 30819507
               30529464 29599458 29149502 28719557