Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 376
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 376 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211925Z - 212130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
   ATTM...AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD
   INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX VICINITY /SE OF SJT-NE OF
   JCT/...NEAR THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT WHERE HEATING OF THE MODESTLY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED A ZONE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK
   AND THUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPLOSIVE...STORMS --
   ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO -- ARE
   FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO.  WITH TIME...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
   TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS BEING
   HINDERED A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

   AS STORMS INITIATE...LOCAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SHEAR /AIDED
   BY AROUND 30 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS/.  WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
   RISK...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EVIDENT ALONG WITH RISK FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- WHICH SUGGEST POSSIBILITY THAT WW WILL BE
   REQUIRED.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30619879 30489971 30940065 31590027 32339866 32879805
               33399740 33489588 33039548 31399643 30619879 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities