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Mesoscale Discussion 376
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FLORIDA AND SRN/ERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
   CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 191624Z - 191830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   FLORIDA...THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAVANNAH VALLEY...BY 18-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...WITH SOME
   FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHILE IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA.  IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 70F AS
   FAR NORTH AS A MACON GA...AUGUSTA GA...CHARLESTON SC LINE.  SOME
   NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT APPEARS
   PROBABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  INSOLATION TO THIS POINT APPEARS TO
   BE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH AT
   LEAST SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION PROBABLE.  THE LATEST RAPID
   REFRESH /SUPPORTED BY VWP DATA/ SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
   COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF A BELT OF 40-50
   KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN
   GEORGIA...TOWARD THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA OF SOUTH CAROLINA.  SO
   THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES THROUGH 18-21Z...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  THE
   RISK FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30128436 30968406 32518321 33638288 33838121 33118053
               31758122 30658216 29868349 30128436 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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