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Mesoscale Discussion 377
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

   VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

   DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
   STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
   35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.

   LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
   PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
   STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
   WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
   JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
   COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
   ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
   TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
   SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
   TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 04/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
               32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
               29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2014
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