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Mesoscale Discussion 378
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130953Z - 131300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY POSE AN ISOLD TORNADO
   THREAT TO THE LA CSTL WATERS AND TO IMMEDIATE SRN LA GULF CST.

   DISCUSSION...WSW-ENE ORIENTED SQLN NOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF
   MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E OR ENEWD AT ABOUT 30 KTS. SYSTEM
   IS BEING FED BY BELT OF 35-45 KT SWLY 850-700 MB FLOW AHEAD OF
   PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING
   NW TX. ALTHOUGH THE SQLN EVOLVED FROM EARLIER ELEVATED TSTMS OVER E
   CNTRL TX...THE LINE NOW MARKS WHAT AMOUNTS TO A REJUVENATED COLD
   FRONTAL SEGMENT OF A PRE-EXISTING SFC FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM
   THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST ENE ACROSS THE GULF CSTL WATERS INTO EXTREME
   SRN LA /NEAR HUM AND BVE/. SFC WIND AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS...AND
   MODEL DATA...SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE SLIGHTLY N ACROSS SE
   LA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TX UPR SYS CONTINUES ENEWD. WHOLESALE
   NWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
   MARKEDLY DRIER/COOLER AIR IN MS.

   A FEW STORMS WITHIN AND JUST E OF THE SQLN HAVE SHOWN LOW- AND
   MID-LVL ROTATION IN THE PAST HR...LIKELY REFLECTING THE PRESENCE OF
   CONSIDERABLE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. WIND
   FIELDS WILL SOMEWHAT INCREASE THROUGH 12-15Z TODAY AHEAD OF THE SQLN
   OVER THE LA GULF CSTL WATERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
   CST...WITH 700 MB SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KT PER THE ECMWF. THIS
   INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR...AND ELY NEAR-SFC WINDS...MAY ALLOW A FEW
   EMBEDDED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL ROTATION TO GRAZE THE LA GULF CST
   AND FAR SE LA THROUGH ABOUT MID-MRNG...POSING A LOW PROBABILISTIC
   RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A TORNADO. ATTM...HOWEVER...NARROW
   NATURE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ZONE...AND QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE
   SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME.

   ..CORFIDI/DIAL.. 04/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29269358 29899347 30069224 29869088 29208909 28929056
               29269358 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2016
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