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Mesoscale Discussion 378
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND
   ADJACENT S CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191814Z - 192015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY POSE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH
   CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE
   PIVOTING AROUND THE REMNANT CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL LOW...APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE 19-22Z TIME.  THE
   AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
   DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...IS
   SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
   ALABAMA.  THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
   SURFACE HEATING...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA.
    IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW SPREADING
   TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...850 MB FLOW
   IS WEAKER AND VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.  BUT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
   GUSTS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...
   MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32188824 33298832 33968869 36248783 36768688 36528550
               34118448 32868535 32408640 32058786 32188824 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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