MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT WED APR 03 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SE TX...SW LA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 030610Z - 030845Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...EXPANDING BOW ECHO OVER SE TX SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS
   LOWER SABINE RIVER REGION AND PORTIONS SWRN LA...WITH THREAT OF
   SPORADIC STG-DAMAGING GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 50-KT SVR CRITERIA.  WHILE
   CONVECTION MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SVR POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT.
   
   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE -- SEPARATING
   MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER OPEN GULF FROM MORE
   STABLE/OUTFLOW-REINFORCED AIR MASS INLAND -- WAS DRAWN AT 06Z FROM
   15-20 NM OFFSHORE JEFFERSON COUNTY TX ESEWD ACROSS SHELF WATERS NEAR
   RIG STATIONS KSCF AND KMDJ.  WHILE DRIFTING NWD...PROGRESS OF THIS
   MARINE FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT PRECIP ON BOTH
   SIDES...EFFECTIVELY OFFSETTING WAA AND REINFORCING STATIC STABILITY
   THAT INCREASES WITH INLAND EXTENT.  GLS CLOCKED 49-KT GUST AT 452Z
   IN MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS COMPLEX HAS OR WILL PASS
   THROUGH...VERY CLOSE TO SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCEL AND BARELY
   N OF MARINE FRONT.  BPT ONLY GUSTED TO 28 KT IN MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL--MAINLY ABOVE
   SFC--WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY IN FACE OF MRGL INSTABILITY. 
   LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY ELY 850-MB COMPONENT EVIDENT IN VWP...AND
   RELATED ENHANCEMENT OF STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ABOVE SFC.  NEARLY
   SATURATED DEEP-LAYER AIR MASS WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MRGL
   BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZE ENVIRONMENT INTO WHICH MCS IS MOVING. MODIFIED
   LCH RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 250-500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE
   OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
   WELL OFFSHORE.
   
   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 04/03/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29649413 29869393 30159392 30409401 30539416 30589427
               30699455 30989382 30949317 30729228 30519160 29909150
               29529153 29669157 29639168 29549171 29399186 29529190
               29579214 29519227 29589272 29759322 29729374 29669383
               29649413