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Mesoscale Discussion 379
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA TO SCNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142029Z - 142200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
   FROM SCNTRL LA INT SCNTRL MS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
   LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED FROM SCNTRL LA...NEWD INTO WCNTRL GA. 
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THIS ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   SRN INFLUENCE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   FEATURE WITH TSTM ACTIVITY MIGRATING ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS
   OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  FARTHER SOUTH...NRN GULF BASIN
   THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
   MIGRATING NWD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. 
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NORTH ALONG THIS
   WEAK WIND SHIFT.  LATEST RADAR ALGORITHMS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS THE
   PRIMARY RISK UNTIL AIR MASS IS OVERTURNED.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH.

   ..DARROW/GOSS.. 04/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30599316 31719070 31978918 31138879 30639055 30069257
               30599316 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2016
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