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Mesoscale Discussion 380
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY TO FAR WESTERN
   DAKOTAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142144Z - 142345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY SOME HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT/FAR
   NORTHEAST WY TO THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 996-MB SURFACE LOW
   CENTERED NEAR SHERIDAN WY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WY. TIED TO
   FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATED TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-JET EXIT
   REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A VIGOROUS/STRONG-WIND-GUST-
   PRODUCING BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE BIG HORN BASIN. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...WORLAND WY HAD A MEASURED
   48-KT GUST...WHILE GREYBULL WY HAD A 54-KT GUST. THIS
   CONVECTION/BELT OF ASCENT WILL INCREASINGLY ENCOUNTER MODESTLY
   HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 40S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AS IT SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
   THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND FIELD IN
   THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THE
   POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFTS...WHILE SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR
   AS WELL.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44630689 45250758 46120737 47020315 45460310 43460274
               43250357 44530449 44630689 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2016
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