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Mesoscale Discussion 380
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...

   VALID 192011Z - 192215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY STILL INCREASE THROUGH 23-00Z ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE
   NC...COLUMBIA SC...AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS.  TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS
   DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN A LINE AHEAD OF AN
   ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...AND BELT OF MODERATE
   SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
   NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH 23-00Z.  NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
   IS AROUND 30 KT...INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
   HOWEVER...A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   OF IT IS ALLOWING FOR A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION.   THE WARMING INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
   MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. 
   AND...WITH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTING SOME STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW FROM 30 TO 40 KT...ATOP A BACKED AMBIENT
   SURFACE COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR MESOVORTICES
   WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AND/OR TORNADOES.

   ..KERR.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34758200 35698164 36098060 35037974 33807925 33327930
               32298051 32078116 33148134 34758200 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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