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Mesoscale Discussion 380
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID/SWRN MT/WRN WY/NRN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221958Z - 222200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE ERN ID/SWRN MT VICINITY.  WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   INCREASING...WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN
   CUMULUS ACROSS THE ERN ID VICINITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
   PAST HOUR...WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER WHERE
   HEATING HAS ALLOWED MODEST CAPE TO DEVELOP.  WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE...THIS DEFICIENCY IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY VERY STRONG
   SLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SHARP/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. 
   WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE INTENSE FLOW ALOFT...EVEN
   WEAK/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALLOWING A LOCAL
   DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- POSSIBLY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
   EFFECTS GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. 
   THEREFORE...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE TO THE EXTENT THAT WW ISSUANCE IS REQUIRED.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45951288 46261232 46521059 45191019 42321022 40701068
               40611210 41941311 42481328 45511344 45951288 

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Page last modified: April 22, 2014
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