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Mesoscale Discussion 381
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142306Z - 150030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED OVER
   THE INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED OFF THE WEST COAST
   SEA BREEZE HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA. 
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...IT APPEARS THAT THEY MAY MERGE...AND
   INTERACT WITH THE INLAND ADVANCING...OUTFLOW-ENHANCED EAST COAST SEA
   BREEZE.  AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG...AND AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-35 KT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
   THROUGH 00-01Z.  

   ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...MRMS DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS
   HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL.  THIS LIKELY REMAINS
   POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASING RISK FOR A STRONG DOWNBURST
   WITH ANY UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  MUCH OF THIS THREAT MAY REMAIN
   CONCENTRATED OVER RELATIVELY UNPOPULATED AREAS OF POLK AND OSCEOLA
   COUNTIES...TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE AND ST.
   CLOUD...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 04/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27938184 28358171 28388137 28118114 27708083 27428100
               27418133 27628145 27938184 

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