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Mesoscale Discussion 381
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222214Z - 230015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
   SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
   THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
   FROM ERN CO NWWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE WY/NEB
   PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S
   WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO ROBUST HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING. 

   MAIN PROBLEM REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL IS THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS ARE
   GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE UP TO 500 J
   PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
   ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST. MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS
   DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS FAR. AS SUCH...A
   CONDITIONAL SVR RISK EXISTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
   THREAT. SOME SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   ABQ...

   LAT...LON   41490522 42660539 43460466 43550357 43190218 42160147
               40120092 38600070 36700160 35730426 37100428 39270363
               40770478 41490522 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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