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Mesoscale Discussion 381
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 192056Z - 192230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH 22-00Z WITH
   AT LEAST ONE OR TWO STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. 
   IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE
   OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING INLAND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO AROUND 90F OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE.  THIS IS IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS.  A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS PROBABLY
   WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY
   THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  AN AREA OF
   ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE NEAR MELBOURNE COULD BECOME THE
   FOCUS FOR NEW/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH BACKED/
   SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SOME RISK FOR A
   TORNADO.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28838232 29978167 29858092 28268075 28148162 28838232 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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