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Mesoscale Discussion 382
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
   PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151809Z - 152045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT INITIAL SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 19-20Z...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE 21-00Z
   TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY REACHING THE SIZE OF
   GOLFBALLS...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...INLAND DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING DESPITE AREAS OF
   ANVIL CIRRUS CAST DOWNSTREAM OF ERN-GULF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   EVOLVING IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
   TRANSLUCENT NATURE OF A GEOGRAPHIC SUBSET OF THIS CIRRUS IS
   PERMITTING RELATIVELY ENHANCED INSOLATION OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
   FL PENINSULA TO THE S OF A DIFFUSE FRONT ANALYZED FROM SARASOTA TO
   VERO BEACH.

   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z MIA RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACCOMPANYING AN EML PLUME. COLD H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -13C ARE
   ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY IN THE MID LEVELS BASED ON THE
   MODIFIED RAOB. THE LARGE CAPE DENSITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH
   RELATIVELY LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED BY THE MIAMI VWP...WILL
   SUPPORT CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL. HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN
   AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SVR COVERAGE IS LIMITED OWING TO ONLY MODEST
   DEEP ASCENT...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS DIFFUSE. MULTIPLE FOCI FOR INCIPIENT
   DEEPER CONVECTION EXIST...WHILE ASCENT RELATED TO THE SPEED MAX
   CROSSES THE AREA: /1/ A VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS AGITATED
   CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW RELATED TO CONVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
   AND THE DIFFUSE FRONT.../2/ ALONG A N/S CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED
   NEAR/S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.../3/ FARTHER W ALONG THE DIFFUSE
   BOUNDARY...AND /4/ INVOF BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS ON THE ERN
   PERIPHERY OF THICKER ANVIL. IN EACH OF THESE CASES...ASCENT IS
   LIMITED...YIELDING UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   REGARDLESS...GIVEN LIMITED RESIDUAL MLCINH BASED ON THE MODIFIED 12Z
   MFL RAOB... CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASING SVR RISK
   COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...A GREATER
   RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WIND WOULD EXIST LATER IN THE
   AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY INVOF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EWD TOWARD VERO
   BEACH AND SWD TOWARD THE MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE AREAS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25318080 25698108 26858118 27318214 27448246 27808243
               28018111 27818041 27338013 26648001 25558026 25318080 

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