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Mesoscale Discussion 382
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...WRN/CNTRL/NRN
   LA...SRN/ERN AR...FAR WRN MS...FAR WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81...

   VALID 192145Z - 192345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 81. PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. A
   NEW WW MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG A SFC
   FRONT ANALYZED FROM WRN AR TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE AIR MASS E OF
   THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN MANY
   AREAS BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
   1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...LOCALLY GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF E TX.
   FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
   AS STORMS SPREAD EWD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO
   EVOLVE INTO INTENSE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS INTO THE EVENING.
   HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD-LAYER MEAN FLOW POSSESSING A NOTABLE
   BOUNDARY-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT IN THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...A
   DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE MAY BE DOMINANT INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING /AS IS BEING OBSERVED PRESENTLY PER RADAR LOOPS/ BEFORE
   UPSCALE GROWTH/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CLOUD STREETS IN THIS REGION
   PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODESTLY ENHANCED...AND
   THE SHV VWP SAMPLES A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW
   LEVELS. AS SUCH...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL
   FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST
   WARRANTING LOCALIZED TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE -- EFFECTIVELY UPGRADING
   PORTIONS OF WW 81.

   OTHERWISE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SPREADS
   EWD WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE. SVR HAIL
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   FARTHER S...LOCALIZED SPATIAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   81 MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AS CU CONTINUES
   TO BACKBUILD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OFFER CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH
   WEAKER DEEPER ASCENT AND MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE RENDER LOWER
   CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION W/SW OF WW 81.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29749839 30699648 33449435 34179372 34199223 36049152
               35869017 34809008 31569182 30419287 29839388 29429764
               29749839 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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