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Mesoscale Discussion 383
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151907Z - 152000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NERN NM INTO
   SERN CO.  IN RESPONSE...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED SUCH THAT LIGHTNING
   IS NOW OBSERVED WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER BENT COUNTY CO.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER ALONG
   NOSE OF HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PLUME.  WHILE SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...THOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  FOR THIS REASON A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.  TORNADO WATCH
   MAY BE REQUIRED SOUTH OF THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW
   POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38600296 41700241 41740026 39170024 38160150 38600296 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2016
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