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Mesoscale Discussion 383
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN UT...INCLUDING SALT LAKE
   CITY...INTO SWRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   SALT LAKE CITY AREA THROUGH 00-02Z.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
   COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS
   UNCLEAR.  BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL EXIST
   WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.

   DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG 2 HOUR SURFACE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
   EVIDENT IN LATEST SURFACE DATA NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN...FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. 
   AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES
   NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
   IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.  DEEPENING CONVECTION IS
   EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG THE
   FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...CAPE FOR THE DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS RATHER WEAK.  BUT LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   THIS REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...ARE VERY
   STEEP.  COINCIDING WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
   FLOW NOSING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

   LAT...LON   40011288 40441275 41341262 41971166 41891088 40931125
               40481152 39861225 39741282 40011288 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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