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Mesoscale Discussion 384
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 151925Z - 160130Z

   SUMMARY...A LONG-DURATION SNOW EVENT IS INITIATING OVER THE
   CNTRL/N-CNTRL CO MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW BECOMING LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE
   20-22Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
   SNOWFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES...
   AFFECTING ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6-7 KFT.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PROMINENT
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE DESERT SW...APPROACHING THE SRN
   ROCKIES...WITH A CYCLONE BECOMING DEFINED W OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. THIS CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE CLOSING OFF AT H7...YIELDING AN
   INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS NE OVER PARTS OF THE CO ROCKIES.
   DIURNALLY STEEPENED LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT E OF
   THE CYCLONE ARE PRESENTLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
   PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO
   PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION BANDS EVOLVING WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE
   RELATED TO THE MATURING H7 CYCLONE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.

   THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 7 KFT
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ADIABATIC
   COOLING RELATED TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION. FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
   THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT -- TO AROUND 6 KFT -- AS LOW-LEVEL
   COLD ADVECTION OCCURS. FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT IN THE LOW/MID
   LEVELS...COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES IN MANY AREAS...WILL
   INTERSECT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES FOR PERIODS OF
   SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY REACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH TONIGHT.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE WWD
   TO THE PARK RANGE.

   ..COHEN.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

   LAT...LON   39060577 39360636 39780663 40490682 40920670 40940573
               40720545 40030535 39360533 39060577 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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