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Mesoscale Discussion 385
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231934Z - 232200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REQUIRING THE
   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE
   AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE
   IN E-CNTRL CO. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACCOUNTING FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
   DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG EXISTS. AS
   RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BREACHED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY NEAR ITS
   INTERSECTION WITH A DRYLINE CURRENTLY MIXING INTO WRN KS -- W OF
   WHICH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT INTO E-CNTRL
   CO. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS PER VWPS
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS
   ANTICIPATED OWING TO 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DMGG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SEVERE
   HAIL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE INCIPIENT PHASES OF CONVECTION AND
   WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   42179848 41809727 40709723 38389866 38140042 38670100
               40050028 41029966 42009943 42179848 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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