Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 386
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 386 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
   AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
   EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
   EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
   MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING.

   ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
   F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
   INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
   12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
   21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

   A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
   INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
   TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
   STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
   SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/. 

   AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
   DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
   THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
   AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
               34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 23, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities