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Mesoscale Discussion 387
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152213Z - 160015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS
   MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   INCLUDING THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW VICINITIES. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /AS OF 22Z OR 5PM CDT/
   REFLECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CU NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE NM/TX
   BORDER VICINITY SPANNING ROUGHLY CLOVIS NM TO HOBBS NM. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR A SHARPENING/WESTWARD-FOCUSING PORTION
   OF THE DRYLINE. STORM COVERAGE IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LARGER-SCALE FORCING THROUGH
   PEAK HEATING...AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT
   LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. INITIALLY
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID 45-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK
   MAY EXIST ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE MODESTLY INCREASES COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33810101 33610152 32910203 31880219 31980353 33260329
               34500294 34580097 33810101 

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