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Mesoscale Discussion 387
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
   NORTHWEST KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232032Z - 232300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
   THAT A SFC BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING
   EAST OF A 995-MB DENVER-AREA CYCLONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY SFC
   CONDITIONS N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S -- AMIDST A DEEP PBL
   FOR VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
   AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN FORT
   COLLINS AND AKRON. WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA AND ASSOCIATED
   MID-LEVEL LIFT AS IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL
   UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 900
   J/KG AMIDST 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 30-40 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   SPREAD E OF NERN CO INTO FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR NWRN KS BY EARLY
   EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE PAUCITY OF
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR RISK FROM
   ENSUING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39350213 39210355 39770456 40680426 41200307 41110197
               40730152 40070143 39350213 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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