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Mesoscale Discussion 388
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232054Z - 232300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TX IN AREAS NEAR AND
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...WHILE SEVERAL TSTMS
   HAVE ALSO INCREASED/MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
   GRANDE RIVER/DEL RIO VICINITY AS OF 2045Z. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS ASSOCIATION WITH A FOUR CORNERS AREA SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
   COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INITIALLY MODEST /30 KT/ IN
   MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING AS
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
   STRONGER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...EITHER VIA ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY
   LINE AND/OR STORMS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY POTENTIALLY AS A
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29980211 31300183 32010130 32300012 31939937 31489942
               29240001 28360025 29490147 29980211 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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