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Mesoscale Discussion 388
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST KS TO
   WESTERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

   VALID 152247Z - 160015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE/DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN CO/FAR NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NEB. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...IN VICINITY OF SSW/NNE-EXTENDING FRONT/INVERTED
   TROUGH...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO HAVE TENDED TO MERGE AND
   CLUSTER/REPETITIVELY TRAIN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/FAR NORTHEAST CO AND
   EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEB AS 2230Z. AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR/CLUSTERED
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO
   BACK...WITH STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
   LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL AS PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. WHILE THE
   CLUSTERED-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TEND TO CURB LARGER HAIL
   MAGNITUDES...35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   750-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL
   POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN CO/EXTREME WESTERN KS WHERE A
   GREATER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F/...SEVERE-CALIBER
   WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO
   BE AROUND 125-225 M2/S2 PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS...A TORNADO COULD
   OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
   NEB PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...ALTHOUGH THE COOL
   NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE NUMBER/MODE OF STORMS SUGGESTS
   ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41760191 41970107 40920029 40060074 38610137 38690200
               38920293 40230242 41760191 

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