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Mesoscale Discussion 389
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89...

   VALID 152255Z - 160030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREATER MIAMI METROPOLITAN AREA
   THROUGH 01-02Z.  THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD
   STILL INCREASE...AND A TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR
   AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WITHIN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
   THE GREAT MIAMI METROPOLITAN AREA.  THIS APPEARS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME ENHANCED ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT AND THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MIAMI METRO
   BETWEEN NOW AND 00-02Z.  

   A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMA /PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY
   GENERATED OR ENHANCED/ HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR LOOPS DURING THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
   WITHIN THE MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  IT APPEARS THAT ONE OF
   THESE MAY BE FAVORABLY TIMED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG...SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
   THE EVOLUTION OF A GROWING AND INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   26688075 26617999 26637938 25527963 25107998 25538074
               26688075 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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