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Mesoscale Discussion 390
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

   VALID 152351Z - 160145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ASIDE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING MAINLY
   ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHEAST
   CO/SOUTHWEST KS. TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...AS 630 PM CDT/2315Z...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/EXTREME
   NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...INCLUDING
   A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELL NORTHEAST OF DALHART TX WHERE 2.5
   INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND 6 PM CDT. WHILE CLOUD COVER
   REMAINS SEMI-PREVALENT NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODEST MOISTURE
   WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 50S F DEWPOINTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INHIBITION
   WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK...WHICH COULD CONDITIONALLY INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
   HALVES OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A MORE DISCRETE-STORM-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VECTOR. CONSISTENT WITH THESE EXPECTATIONS...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
   CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BACKING /SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND STRENGTHENING OF
   SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA
   FROM AMARILLO INDICATING AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. EVEN WHILE
   THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDITIONALLY MORE
   FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING...MODEST CONVERGENCE JUST ABOVE
   THE SURFACE /BASED ON AVAILABLE WSR-88D VWP DATA AND RAP GUIDANCE/
   MAY BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE EXTENT/VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF TORNADO
   WATCH 91 INCLUDING THE TX PANHANDLE.

   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35150292 36500302 37980305 38390255 38390139 37780120
               36610115 35210154 34890209 34840257 35150292 

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