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Mesoscale Discussion 391
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OK/PART OF NW AND W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

   VALID 240221Z - 240315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03-04Z
   ACROSS SWRN-WEST CENTRAL OK AND OVER NWRN TX AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
   TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL OK.  HAIL AND
   STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK AND/OR NORTH
   CENTRAL TX.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED JUST A COUPLE
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINING WITHIN AND JUST E OF WW 88 /IN YOUNG
   AND STONEWALL COUNTIES TX AND KIOWA COUNTY OK/.  LIGHTNING
   TRENDS...ASIDE FROM THESE STORMS...HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
   INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING PER THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME
   HEATING AND LIKELY REDUCING THE INGEST OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
   EXISTING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS A 40-45 KT
   SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK PROVIDES AN
   INFLUX OF GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH
   TX.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AS THE CAP
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

   ..PETERS.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32140059 33200039 33519994 35059933 35909912 36059811
               35969792 33949780 33109787 32519833 32089921 32140059 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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