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Mesoscale Discussion 391
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0820 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST
   KS/SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

   VALID 160120Z - 160245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL THE REMAINDER OF
   THE NIGHT...BUT SOME HAIL/WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...NEAR AND EAST OF A SSW/NNE-ORIENTED FRONT...EXTENSIVE
   LINEARLY DOMINANT CONVECTION PREVAILS NEAR/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTH PLATTE AS
   OF 01Z. MODEST BUOYANCY ASIDE...HAIL MAGNITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO
   REMAIN LIMITED BY THE PREVALENT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. WHILE
   ADDITIONAL BOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH FURTHER COLD-POOL
   DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION...A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL TEND TO CURB SEVERE-CALIBER
   WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH ONLY SPORADIC/MARGINAL
   HAIL AND/OR WIND ANTICIPATED...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY/AT 03Z FOR
   MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF WESTERN KS COULD WARRANT AN
   EXTENSION/REPLACEMENT WATCH.

   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38770273 40070227 40780165 41960218 41660025 40200045
               38380124 38640191 38770273 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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