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Mesoscale Discussion 392
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 200625Z - 200800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
   THE OVERALL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER
   THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC IN AREAS
   10-30 MILES TO THE EAST OF I-95 AS OF 06Z. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS
   TO BE AIDED BY MASS RESPONSE TO A NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATED BACKING /SOUTHEASTERLY/ SURFACE
   WINDS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST NC INTO EASTERN VA. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS NOT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION IS
   RELATIVELY WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS AMID
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE MAY SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF INCREASING
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST
   VA. A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...INCLUDING 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
   AS PER SURFACE-ADJUSTED WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
   WAKEFIELD/RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY...WILL SUPPORT LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING
   STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36207780 37027687 37107625 35797557 34947671 34977797
               36207780 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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