Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 392
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 392 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241525Z - 241730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
   MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
   WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE
   OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
   FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE IN S-CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL OK.
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z LAMONT OK RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
   SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
   MODERATE BUOYANCY AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM.
   CONTINUED PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST
   BUOYANCY. AND...AS ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX
   CROSSING KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERTAKES THE
   PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE EWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
   MORNING. THE TULSA VWP INDICATES 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS CONTRIBUTING
   TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. DESPITE AT
   LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM FLOW MAY
   PROVE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
   UPDRAFTS. UNTIL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SFC CYCLONE OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
   IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37729615 38119520 37299487 36339505 35669546 35469626
               35879684 37729615 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 24, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities