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Mesoscale Discussion 392
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS TO OK PANHANDLE AND FAR
   SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

   VALID 160207Z - 160330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL PERSISTS
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK
   PANHANDLE...WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
   STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS. PRIOR TO THE 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH
   91...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED BY AROUND
   930-945 PM CDT MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WESTERN
   KS.

   DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF
   PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
   MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS NEAR ELKHART AS OF 845 PM CDT/0145Z.
   THIS SUPERCELL IS LIKELY TO BE OVERTAKEN DURING THE NEXT HOUR BY AN
   UPSCALE-GROWING BOW ECHO /WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/ THAT IS
   CURRENTLY ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   CO AND CIMARRON COUNTY OK. THIS CORRIDOR INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS/OK
   PANHANDLE...AND THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE PENDING ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT...WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MOST FOCUSED CORRIDOR FOR
   HAIL/WIND AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. 

   FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES...VIGOROUS
   STORM REDEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE HAS BEEN MITIGATED SINCE LATE
   AFTERNOON PRESUMABLY BY MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE OWING TO A
   WESTWARD-RETREATING DRY LINE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY YET OCCUR THROUGH
   MID/LATE-EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWEST PARTS
   OF THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE MODESTLY
   INCREASING...BUT POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. ANY
   STORMS THAT MATURE/REMAIN SUSTAINED COULD POSE A LARGE HAIL
   RISK...AND A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
   LATE EVENING EVEN WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION WILL BE
   INCREASING.

   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36940265 37950173 37740094 34500134 34330302 36410299
               36940265 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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