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Mesoscale Discussion 393
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS AND OK
   PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...

   VALID 160452Z - 160645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN
   THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS/OK PANHANDLE AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92 CONTINUES UNTIL 5AM
   CDT/10Z.

   DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING BOW ECHO ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS
   /NEARING GARDEN CITY AS OF 1130 PM CDT/ WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A
   DIMINISHING SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS BOW. A LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED/BROKEN GROUPING OF STORMS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX
   PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE REGENERATING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND
   OUTFLOW/COLD-POOL REINFORCED FRONT. 

   JUST EAST...ONE OR TWO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY ONGOING
   NEAR/NORTH OF DUMAS TX WILL REMAIN WITHIN A SEMI-FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH
   WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK FEATURING
   ELONGATED/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 50-KT WINDS WITHIN THE
   LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. HOWEVER...INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION
   WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD INCREASINGLY ELEVATED STORM INFLOW...THUS
   KEEPING THE TORNADO RISK MINIMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHILE
   SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OTHERWISE PERSISTS.

   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37850079 37800018 37390011 36180070 35090091 34440151
               34420168 34450297 35600316 37030220 37490105 37850079 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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