MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 072326Z - 080100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SW
   OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN INITIATE AND
   PERSIST. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
   EARLY THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED
   CUMULUS JUST TO THE EAST OF CHILDRESS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE.
   IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CAPPING...STRONG SFC
   HEATING TO NEAR 90 F AT CHILDRESS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE
   LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 8.0
   C/KM. THIS WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A
   THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST.
   
   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   33529806 33329818 33209854 33209895 33349931 33519939
               33999954 34459973 34899971 35169931 35239888 35189855
               34829819 34209827 33529806