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Mesoscale Discussion 394
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTH GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201235Z - 201500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP INLAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHERN GA. A WATCH ISSUANCE
   DOES NOT SEEM IMMINENT /AS OF 1230Z/...BUT A WATCH COULD BECOME
   NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. A
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z DAY 1
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.

   DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF 300+ MILE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
   SQUALL LINE /THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO/ CONTINUES
   TO GRADUALLY APPROACH NEAR-COASTAL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY
   THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA VICINITY. BASED ON THE
   RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE...SOME NEAR-SURFACE
   INHIBITION EXISTS INLAND PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE
   QUALITY/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH. PRE-SQUALL LINE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE IS
   ALSO LIMITED BY SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
   WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-3 KM AGL AS PER TALLAHASSEE
   WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. NONETHELESS...A
   NEAR-COASTAL STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
   DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS AS
   SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES INLAND. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING AS SOME ADDITIONAL
   HEATING/MOISTENING OCCURS...AND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL
   GULF COAST INCREASINGLY INFLUENCES THE REGION.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30158615 30858458 30578220 29828197 29148291 29128422
               29328533 30158615 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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