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Mesoscale Discussion 394
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND WRN/CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241813Z - 242015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD FRONT
   CONTINUING TO TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN OK. FRONTAL ASCENT AND STRONG
   DCVA PRECEDING A PV MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EWD PROGRESSION
   OF ONGOING CONVECTION.  DESPITE CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE 12Z OUN
   RAOB...ALSO SIGNALED BY STANDING WAVE CLOUD FORMATIONS/BILLOWS OVER
   THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL PRE-FRONTAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT AN EROSION OF ANTECEDENT MLCINH WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO
   AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SUCH...FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY
   AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...PREFRONTAL ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT -- MAXIMIZED INVOF A REMNANT/DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM SERN OK TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR -- MAY CONTINUE TO BOLSTER
   CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR AS
   SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SSW /PER RECENT OBS/ AND SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF
   RICHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY. GIVEN FAST MID-LEVEL
   FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36289461 36429343 35889243 34379234 33789306 33859433
               34399514 35659509 36289461 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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