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Mesoscale Discussion 395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201613Z - 201815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.80
   INCHES. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST WITH 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES OF -12 C MEASURED AT TBW THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   IS ALSO FORMIDABLE...AND TCU ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING DUE TO AREAS OF
   HEATING DESPITE CIRRUS. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM W TO E ACROSS
   THE MID PORTION OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO THE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
   WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE NEAR AN E-COAST LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH.

   MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL AND WIND. AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...WITH A CONDITIONAL AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
   SHOULD A SEVERE STORM FORM ON THE SERN FL SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25848001 25578030 26948088 27718173 28718200 29258157
               29418100 28478042 28198051 27238003 26787995 25848001 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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