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Mesoscale Discussion 395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161850Z - 162015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE.  HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE NOTED. 
   CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...PER MOISTENING
   MID-LEVELS IN WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE DRY LINE.  CU FIELD IS ALSO
   EXPANDING WITHIN VEERED POST-DRY LINE ENVIRONMENT WHICH VALIDATES
   VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG IMMEDIATE DRY LINE.  FOR
   THESE REASONS IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
   INTENSIFY WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO
   THE ERN OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...ROBUST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   MATURE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.  HAIL WILL BE COMMON AND A FEW
   TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34120176 35480197 36840161 36870044 35120026 33479996
               32840080 34120176 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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