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Mesoscale Discussion 396
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162053Z - 162200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS BEFORE
   TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND HI-RES MODEL
   DATA SUGGEST THE MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHORT TERM TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT
   SOME POINT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF SCNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK WHERE IT
   INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT IS LOCATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR
   AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR
   FORT STOCKTON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF SAN ANGELO
   ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT ARE MOVING ONTO THE COOL
   SIDE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AS
   THE STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
   CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC WARMING. GIVEN CAPPING
   ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...NEAR-TERM COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY
   REMAIN ISOLATED. 

   ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WITH DEEPER ASCENT IS ROTATING THROUGH
   BASE OF UPPER LOW AND MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ZONE
   OF ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE...COINCIDENT WITH
   STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL
   DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30110238 31390186 32790134 32860038 32390016 31090056
               29920150 30110238 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2016
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