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Mesoscale Discussion 396
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE GA...UPSTATE SC...PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   CENTRAL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

   VALID 201703Z - 201800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SC INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC.
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT
   BE RULED OUT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
   GA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
   WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SC INTO
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S
   WITH SOME AREAS NEAR 80 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME
   HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   EXISTS WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A NEARLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
   AS EVIDENCE OF THIS...CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED IN LATEST VIS
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER INTO CENTRAL NC. STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT COULD REMAIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT /-14 DEG C AT 500 MB PER GSO 12Z RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
   HAIL. FAST STORM MOTION AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG ALSO WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME BACKING OF
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO N-CENTRAL SC. A BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THIS OCCURS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34308032 34038128 33878191 33818215 33838304 33978366
               34218407 34408408 34718385 35308321 35838237 36088158
               36028061 35787990 35397945 35037938 34677960 34308032 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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