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Mesoscale Discussion 397
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

   VALID 162314Z - 170115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT
   SHOULD BE ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WW 93...OR NEAR
   AND SOUTH OF I-40.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
   NORTHWARD EXTENT...WITH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE
   HAVING A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH EVEN THERE THIS
   PROBABILITY IS LOW.

   DISCUSSION...THE GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE HAS BEEN MOVING
   SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF WW 93 DURING THE
   LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THIS
   BOUNDARY FROM GARZA TO SWISHER COUNTIES TX.  THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...MOST SEVERE...WERE LOCATED IN DICKENS AND DONLEY/GRAY
   COUNTIES.  THE INFLOW SECTOR FOR THE SOUTHERN STORMS IN DICKENS
   COUNTY IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 50 KT CONTINUES TO FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS.

   THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN
   STRUGGLING AS THEIR INFLOW AIR FROM WESTERN OK HAS BEEN MORE STABLE
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  RECENTLY...THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN WITH THE
   STORM IN DONLEY COUNTY.  THIS AREA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL THETA-E EXPECTED INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ADJACENT
   PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

   MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
   THE DRY LINE WITH THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT.  WEAKER
   INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AND MERIDIONAL FLOW RESULTING IN
   FRONT-PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.  A
   MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE
   STORMS...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD
   FRONT.

   ..PETERS.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33010004 32980163 34050172 35240170 36130163 36970182
               36989994 33010004 

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