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Mesoscale Discussion 398
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 162352Z - 170145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY FOR
   WESTERN NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK FOR THIS EVENING.  HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   FROM STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TX FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF
   THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /COTTLE...KING...AND DICKENS COUNTIES TX/. 
   THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING POLEWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
   TX INTO WESTERN OK.  WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST ATTENDANT TO THIS
   CONFLUENCE ZONE PER WPC MPD 119...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION
   IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
   SEVERE STORMS.  

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE
   WITH THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUGGESTS THE STORMS MOVING INTO
   WESTERN NORTH TX FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WW 93 AND POSSIBLY
   LATER FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WW 94 COULD MAINTAIN SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 04/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34040004 34999999 35089986 35069817 34669813 33949811
               33399815 33349913 33439999 34040004 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2016
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