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Mesoscale Discussion 398
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MO THROUGH WRN  AND SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89...

   VALID 242312Z - 250045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
   FROM EXTREME ERN MO INTO WCNTRL AND SWRN IL THROUGH 00Z. WW 89 CAN
   BE LOCALLY EXTENDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FARTHER EAST INTO SCNTRL IL
   IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION AND
   AREAL COVERAGE OF FUTURE SEVERE THREAT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A LINE OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION
   WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING EXTENDS FROM EXTREME WRN IL THROUGH ERN
   MO NEAR ST LOUIS AND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS LINE
   APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY AN MCV ON NRN END...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
   GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCEMENT. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY RESIDES IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 40 IN CNTRL
   IL ALONG WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND POINT
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED DRY...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WHICH
   MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
   AFTER 00Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN HALF OF THE LINE AS CONVECTION
   MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE REGIME ACROSS IL. THREAT MAY
   PERSIST A BIT LONGER ALONG SRN HALF OF THE LINE INTO SCNTRL IL WHERE
   NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY
   GREATER INSTABILITY.

   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38019051 39249023 39879040 40289008 40158956 39188935
               37988998 38019051 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2014
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