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Mesoscale Discussion 399
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

   VALID 170042Z - 170215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING ACROSS WW 94...WHILE THE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   WILL PERSIST.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0030Z...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PART OF WW 94...WHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...STORMS ARE
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS
   JUST EAST OF A FST-MAF-LBB LINE. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING AS ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA. 

   WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE NOT BEEN
   PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...A
   NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED THIS
   EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   SRH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PART OF WW 94. INCREASING SELY
   FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE /AS INDICATED BY
   HIGH-QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON THE 00Z DRT AND CRP
   SOUNDINGS/ INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY LEAD TO
   AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR
   ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
   RELATING TO TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONVECTIVE MODE...AS UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO AN EWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..DEAN.. 04/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30640301 31570226 32820140 33010069 33249991 33339934
               32899915 31729961 30690014 30550041 30360107 30360176
               30330230 30320284 30490300 30640301 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2016
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