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Mesoscale Discussion 399
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY INTO NRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201923Z - 202130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
   NY INTO NRN PA. DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STABLE BILLOW CLOUDS IN THE
   COOLER AIR ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA. HOWEVER...THESE HAVE BEEN
   ERODING FROM THE WEST AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES. POCKETS
   OF HEATING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S F
   OVER WRN NY...WHILE COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION.

   AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 SRH ON
   THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2 WHICH ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A
   TORNADO RISK. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MODEST PRESSURE
   RISE/FALL COUPLET. IF ENOUGH OF THE AREA CAN DESTABILIZE VIA MIXING
   AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER FAR WRN NY/NWRN PA...THEN SEVERE WIND AND
   WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS BEING ASSESSED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41157909 41757910 42087902 42687913 43327908 43437706
               43547654 43327605 42597564 42067553 41357563 41067642
               40957739 40847830 40767888 41157909 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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